When I run our SERE based classes (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, Escape), I get people who last maybe two weeks, normally one.. I would put money on the fact that anyone who does the BOB challenge, would last only a few cold damp wet nights before they give up.
I don't agree with most of the BS that is out there on the net or printed material. Having first hand experience of peoples expectations versus reality, 95% of attendees have a massive shock.
Most have watched the scripted survival TV series or other TV based survival instruction programs, but when reality hits, you cans see it on their faces....
I train a lot of very fit regular and ex forces members and even some of these guys/gals have a tough time lasting a week, foraging of the land, so long term BOB style living is a sure way to help reduce the surplus population.
Keep well and keep blogging, best regards
And another email received:
If you get a chance, I would like you to read this topic I started and consider my suggestion that preppers take on the role of "pest control". IMO, if the people who are prepared to survive, are not also prepared to eliminate the thieves and murderers who are going to perceive us as prey.... then we are pissing in the wind. No matter how well stocked your are or how long you are prepared to survive on your own, everybody will have to come out of their hiding spots eventually. And if no one has taken it upon themselves to literally exterminate the vermin who are surviving a true doomsday scenario by cannibalism, then we are all pretty much fucking doomed.
Please note what this actually means. The 'thieves and murderers' will be those who ran off into the woods and attempted to survive -- the so-called 'survivalist', urban house mom, couch 'patriot' and would-be doomsday wilderness 'prepper'. I am not overlooking the displaced hordes from the city of course. This horde is an entirely different topic which can be addressed later.
Even the professional survival instructors do not agree that bugging out and living off the land is going to work.
The reason is easy to understand. Your first problem is going to be hypothermia, mentioned in Part I. The second is going to be water. The third is going to be food (malnutrition). The fourth will be shelter. Fifth will be physical condition (fatigue, injury, sickness). Not necessarily in that order either.
Many people simply utterly fail to connect how easy it is to die when you are no longer properly protected with the essentials needed to stay alive. Civilization meets this needs for most of us, but we do indeed take this for granted.
Now - here is why I have been harping on this topic of late -- please read, because it is important to everyone.
First -- I'm saving your life. I don't know you, but I do know what many of you intend to do. Internet 'wisdom' is dangerously absent on facts and common sense. You are going to be risking your life and that of your family if you really do try to disappear off into the wilderness as oft depicted online.
Secondly -- Some of you are getting closer and closer to your 'trigger point'. This is the jumping off point where you decide it's time to depart. That decision is entirely up to you, but before you go consider the rest of the points I'm going to present here. I've known people that 'left' in 1999, convinced that it was 'time'. Well, I think we all know what probably happened.
Thirdly -- Some of the best individuals intend to disappear. You are among some of the better informed, better trained, better prepared. But you're not going to be very effective while living like a refugee. I'm talking about the possibility of resistance. If your plans have not included constant and essential resupply, covered in Part II, then it is only a matter of time before you become ineffective and incapacitated, among the 'survivalist horde' that begins to rob, kill and steal to stay alive.
If you do not think that could happen to you -- think again. It has happened to thousands upon thousands of people before, who formerly led exemplary lives. Desperation and hunger, and critical needs such a medical care, will drive you to abandon your morality and integrity virtually instantly in some cases. For others, it may take a few days or few weeks, but quite frankly, it will happen. If you are still able to meet your needs and that of your group or family with you -- then no, but it's pretty clear that nobody is going to last indefinitely 'out there', which means you're coming back and you're going to be in extreme need when that happens (if you've delayed). You will not only be a refugee, but a dangerous one. No doubt able to inflict some serious harm on those around you.
Your first 'prey' is probably going to the other 'survivalists' hiding in the woods with you. Their supplies, if they have any left, may become your supplies, extending your 'stay'. But the ensuing bloodbath won't be pretty.
The other side of this coin is you won't be working together. Or perhaps you will, forming gangs of desperadoes, preying upon everyone else.
Eventually, you'll all come back to civilization. Those of you that have survived this time period, will be forever changed -- and highly dangerous to the rest of us.
Fourth -- We will hunt you down. Someone will come after you -- this is only a matter of time. I do not mean "tracking you through the woods" or even landing a contingent of Special Forces soldiers to "route you out". There will be no need for that, or at least unlikely. You will be coming to us, because you will have to. And that is when we will (eventually) have to deal with you.
It ALL eventually leads to the same place. Wilderness bugout will create refugees, criminals and desperate people, all of who will either come back, prey upon one another or die. A tiny few will "make it" for a time (survive), but even they will come back. Begging or stealing, or perhaps offering their newly finely honed "skills" to us, but they will come back.
Maybe some will actually stay, surviving all the shootouts, thefts, rapes, murder and assassinations, hiding, running, defending, surviving. But this too is highly unlikely because of the 5 points to survival I mentioned above. Injury and sickness will eventually get the very best of us -- and you will come back, if you can.
Fifth -- Many think that hiding in the wilderness will buy them the essential and critical 'time' that they need to endure whatever it was they ran from. Maybe it will -- but it probably won't. Absentee owners (of freedom, or of anything) are subject to more abuse, not less. If you ran from the NWO, martial law, economic collapse, asteroid strike or whatever it was, your absence ensures that things for you will not get better. The only way that they can get better is to deal with it. That isn't going to easy either -- but it is the ONLY path ahead that offers any real hope or promise. The other path can only result in extreme suffering and death.
Six -- If you're going to be a refugee, or a 'survivalist' -- think it through VERY, VERY carefully. Many paths lead to despair, impoverishment, conflict and death. In fact, most of them do. There IS a better way if you absolutely MUST leave.
Nothing offers any of us any guarantees -- but some paths / decisions will remove all hope, all future, all possibilities rather quickly. The self-made wilderness refugee is one of them. If you must go -- then be sure you return quickly, and have some place to return to.
Seven -- Prepare your ground. If you cannot, will not or are prevented from staying put where you are now (applicable to many people, and many possible scenarios) then prepare your ground where you think you can. You need to do this now.
Most of us are going to choose to stay put, right where we are. Preparing here will actually work for a lot of people and a lot of situations. It also happens to be where you will be able to get the most help of course. And if you are going to try to fix anything, you will need some safe place, meeting all of your essential needs, to do it from.
The ground you prepare can be your home or a new home location. There are many, many opinions and insights on this important topic, covering everything from so-called 'urban survival' to 'cabin in the wood'. I cannot do justice to the topic here, many people won't even have read down this far, having made up their minds already. So I'm only going to make the point here that you must prepare a place where you intend to stay. Wandering around in the woods is not it, since you are coming back anyway (maybe). Save yourselves (and us) a lot of needless suffering and death and prepare something else.
If you do go to the woods, be absolutely certain that you have some place else to return to. I've demonstrated the need to resupply as critical and essential, and that "returning" is in all cases, a 100% likelihood. Therefore, this means you must have someplace else in mind. Someplace where you will be welcomed and not simply shot on sight. Someplace where you can meet or obtain the essentials to keep you and yours alive.
It is my opinion, that it makes far more sense to live there now if you can. Or at the very least, sidestep all this 'wilderness' bullshit and prepare instead your new home. Do not misunderstand -- I am not advocating "buy a second home" or anything like that. Your new home, if you must leave, must be a place where you can live, in safety, with the ability to resupply. I'm not going to try and list all the "how's" here that you might do that, another series of articles no doubt. Nor am I suggesting that a B.O.B wouldn't be useful to get you somewhere where you can actually live and survive.
George Orwell said that "speaking the truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act". It's unpopular because it flies in the face of common 'wisdom'. I'm seeing plenty of suppression now of this article series, but I've also seen just the opposite too, it's proven to be the most popular thing I've ever written.
I've long chosen to ignore the entire 'survivalist' side of things on this blog on purpose. This field is absolutely saturated with 'wisdom', some good, some bad. I didn't see any need to try and correct the faults. Let 'em figure it out themselves, or at least, clean out the gene pool, I thought. Well, that is going to happen anyway. Plenty of people will have their minds made up, I see this nearly daily in private emails received. You can speak the truth, share the facts and they will still throw it back in your face. That's fine, it's your life, your responsibility. The only reason why I'm engaging in this topic now is because there is a huge, pressing need to dispel the modern-day myths that permeate 'survivalism'. And I really cannot stand the profiteers that have come and gone, preying upon your fear.
I don't think it really takes all that much to realize that our individual survival, the means by which we all live now, has common, identifiable elements that will not go away in any future scenario. Humanity is not going to simply "stop" or shut down, I don't care what the catastrophe is, we are still going to have to meet our essential needs. Many catastrophes have come before -- and we're still here. Overlooked (somehow) is how absolutely critical it is today that we try to meet those needs together. We are ALL alive because other people are actually keeping us alive. That is not going to change.
Therefore, plan ahead, knowing that simple fact. Plan for where you CAN survive, not where you won't. Whatever the future holds, we're all in this together, and we are going to need each other, even if we don't like it. Your critical and essential resupply comes from other people, who are performing the many various and essential task that you can't. You really cannot do this all by yourself, or even in a small group. EVERYONE will need to resupply for all those things you can't do for yourselves (food being the most important, medical attention probably next). After that, comes many other essentials, shoes, clothing, critical parts and equipment, fuel, etc.
Our response and preparation for any contingencies we may encounter in the days ahead is critical and essential. Those that have well-prepared locations will be best prepared. Those that don't, well -- we know what that means. You might get lucky, or you might just find yourselves part of the coming horde (extremely likely), caught up in events totally outside of your control, unable to do anything, even meet your own daily needs.
Fire Earth has been sharing some applicable news -- 2.2 million refugees in Sudan. Hunger, malnutrition, war, conscription, warlords, the "horde" actually does exists already, in many parts of the world, and always shows up whenever there is war, strife, collapse, even just riots. Our civilization is teetering, its amplitude and period increasing.
Americans are not immune to any of this. There are common elements in every collapse situation. Identifying the common needs is easy, and so is our response. But you must wade through the Internet bullshit first.